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A demonstrator punches through a poster of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad during a protest outside the Syrian Embassy in London (Reuters file).

More than two years after President Barack Obama said it was time for Syria’s president to go, Bashar al-Assad is still in power in Damascus. But new evidence from the United Nations pointing to his regime’s large-scale use of chemical weapons makes it more plausible that Assad could leave office as part of an international peace plan.

In the aftermath of the recent Russian-American deal to remove and destroy Assad’s large chemical weapons arsenal, members of the Syrian opposition and their supporters have complained bitterly that the agreement insures that Assad stays in power to ascertain implementation of the plan through the middle of 2014. However, the new international opprobrium attached to the Syrian leader because of the gassing of hundreds of civilians outside Damascus August 21 is undercutting his support among even his most ardent allies, especially Iran, itself the victim of Iraqi poison gas attacks during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

Long before the latest revelations, Iranian officials have signaled their willingness to see a new face in charge in Damascus – so long as Iranian interests are protected by an Assad successor.

Asked a year ago why Iran was supporting a regime that at the time had killed about 20,000 people, Ali Larijani, the speaker of the parliament said,  “Who are you to say [that Assad should go]? Leave it to the votes of the people.”

Signal of Iranian shift on Syria?

A year later, after the deaths of more than 100,000 Syrians including more than a thousand killed by poison gas,  Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on September 16 told  commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard corps – which has been assisting Assad in battling the rebels – that Iran would accept the results of promised 2014 presidential elections in Syria.

“Whoever Syrian citizens vote for to rule their country, we’ll agree with it,” Rouhani said, according to the Iranian state news agency.

There are certainly many questions about whether and how Syria could hold an election in the middle of a civil war. But in discussions with the Russians and the United Nations, among others, over the past year, U.S. officials have spoken of the need for Assad to be replaced initially by a national unity government led by someone not personally involved in crimes against the Syrian people.

“If Iran were to be included in the negotiations over an Assad replacement, it would also signify U.S. acceptance of Iran’s important role in regional security, something that could facilitate nuclear talks with Iran as well.” – Barbara Slavin

State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki reiterated the U.S. view on September 17.

“Our position has not changed, that there’s no place in a future Syria for President Assad. He’s brutalized his people. More than 100,000 men, women, and children have died while he’s been president of the country. There is, of course, a goal we have in place, to put in place a transitional governing body.”

Psaki went on to say that Secretary of State John Kerry, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.N. Special Representative for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi have been working out the parameters for a Geneva peace conference to create such a transitional government.

“If a transitional governing body is put in place, they would be implementing this,” Psaki said, referring to the chemical weapons disarmament agreement.

Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa is seen in Damascus in an August  26, 2012, file photo. (AP)

Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa is seen in Damascus in an August 26, 2012, file photo. (AP)

Alternatives to Assad

One way to facilitate a transition would be for Assad – who has run unopposed for president twice since his father, Hafez, died in 2000 – to announce that he will not seek another seven-year term as president.

Names such as that of Syria’s Sunni vice president, Farouk al-Sharaa, have been floated as possible replacements. At a security conference in Washington earlier this month held under ground rules that forbid attributing quotations to individuals, one expert said he was told by a Rouhani adviser that what was needed was a Syrian “Karzai” – a reference to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who was picked by multilateral negotiators to lead Afghanistan in late 2001.

Another expert suggested quiet talks among Saudis, Iranians and Americans over how to choreograph a transition from Assad. Such talks would recall the meetings in Bonn in 2001 when then Iranian deputy foreign minister (now foreign minister) Mohammad Javad Zarif worked closely with U.S. diplomat James Dobbins on Afghanistan’s post-Taliban transition.

Iran has been preparing for Assad’s removal for a long time, grooming Shi’ite and Alawite militias that would protect Iran’s equities in Syria, especially its relationship with the Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah. While Syria is important for Iran’s regional security posture, there is scant Iranian public support for the alliance and even less attachment to Assad personally.

Indifference has turned to anger, as Iranians have watched their limited hard currency earnings sent to prop up the Assad regime, and to hatred following the use of chemical weapons. Most Iranians know someone who was killed or injured by poison gas during the Iran-Iraq war. “They can take your life away from you when you’re living,” was how one war veteran described the ordeal recently to the Washington Post.

A man holds the body of a dead child among bodies of purported victims of a nerve gas attack, in the Duma neighborhood of Damascus August 21, 2013. (Reuters)

A man holds the body of a dead child among bodies of purported victims of a nerve gas attack, in the Duma neighborhood of Damascus August 21, 2013. (Reuters)

Chemical attacks make a difference

While the Iranian government has not publicly accepted U.S. allegations that Assad was responsible for the August 21 attacks outside Damascus, the publication of the U.N. report last week – which showed that the trajectory of rockets used to carry sarin gas indicated that they came from the regime stronghold of Mount Qasioun – has influenced Iran’s political elite, according to a well-placed Tehran analyst.

If Iran were to be included in the negotiations over an Assad replacement, it would also signify U.S. acceptance of Iran’s important role in regional security, something that could facilitate nuclear talks with Iran as well.

A missing piece up until now has been a coherent Syrian opposition that could take part in negotiations about a post-Assad Syria. So far, the opposition has refused to sit down with representatives of the Assad government, but that could change if there were assurances that Assad would step down.

Psaki noted last week that the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) – the body recognized by the United States and its allies as representing non-extremist opponents of Assad – had elected a provisional prime minister, Ahmad Tumeh, who will try to set up a government in northern Syrian territory under opposition control. The SOC, Psaki said, is also “working to develop a comprehensive transition plan that includes preservation of state institutions and guarantees for all citizens following the end of the Assad regime.”

Since no one wants to have to take responsibility for rebuilding Syria, that means that U.S., Iranian and Russian goals converge in a desire to preserve as much of the Syrian state as possible if/when Assad goes.

The views expressed in this Insight are the author’s own and are not endorsed by Middle East Voices or Voice of America. If you’d like to share your opinion on this post, you may use our democratic commenting system below. If you are a Middle East expert or analyst associated with an established academic institution, think tank or non-governmental organization, we invite you to contribute your perspectives on events and issues about or relevant to the region. Please email us through our Contact page with a short proposal for an Insight post or send us a link to an existing post already published on your institutional blog.

Barbara Slavin

Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a correspondent for Al-Monitor.com, a website specializing in the Middle East. She is the author of a 2007 book, "Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the US and the Twisted Path to Confrontation," and is a regular commentator on U.S. foreign policy and Iran on NPR, PBS, C-SPAN and the Voice of America.

5 Comments

  1. Enopoletus Harding

    October 3, 2013

    The idea that it would be in America's interest for Bashar al-Assad to step down while the Hafez al-Assad-founded regime continues is absurd. If the Iranian leadership would want an Assad replacement to head the Alawite regime, it would be a leader much less palatable to the United States than Bashar. The Alawite regime cannot be brought down by peaceful means. It can only be ended by slaughter.

    Reply
  2. Yoshiyuki Fudemoto

    September 29, 2013

    It's an interesting discussionthat U.S and Iran could agree witho.president Obama had only talked with Rohani,and had never met but there was certainly development to resume talk.

    Reply
  3. southseabeach

    September 27, 2013

    There is no evidence that Assad was responsible for the chemical weapons attack. In fact, if you think about it seriously for a moment…why would he? He was winning the war against the western backed mercenaries/rebels and the UN weapons inspectors were heading to Syria. He would be mad to use chemical weapons and therefore give the US the reason they need to invade. There is just as much evidence that the rebels have used chemical weapons in the past few years and probably did so again recently to stir up support. We now know that the US have for many years held plans to invade 7 countries in this area(look up General Wesley Clark) – Iraq, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Somalia and of course, ultimately Iran. I’m not surprised that Iran are making moves to open up dialogue with the US.
    PS Would it be OK for Assad or other Middle Eastern leaders to push for regime change in the USA or UK?

    Reply
    • newageblues

      September 28, 2013

      Assad was winning the war? The butcher admitted himself that the war is not winnable.

      Reply
  4. JKF2

    September 26, 2013

    Good article, very reasonable views. A ceasefire and an agreement towards the process of ending the civil war in Syria needs to be found and accelerated, especially if the bio/chem weapons’ centralization/mustering and disposal are to take place. Time is running out for all to achieve and implement an agreement.

    Reply

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